Donald Trump's Ukrainian Peace Proposal Constitutes a Gift to Putin

At first, the former US president seemed to adopt a strong stance on Ukraine. Following making threats of "serious consequences" last August should Putin continued hindering truce discussions, Trump finally imposed substantial sanctions on the Russian two largest energy firms, Rosneft and Lukoil. This action significantly impacted Putin's ability to support his military invasion in the region.

Yet, through his latest 28-point peace initiative for Ukraine, that was developed by both nations' diplomats lacking Ukrainian or European involvement, Trump has seemingly reverted to his favorable to Russia stance.

Rewarding Aggression

This proposal would in practice benefit the Russian leader for attacking Ukraine while leaving Ukraine's democracy in danger. Although bold proclamations that "Ukraine's autonomy will be affirmed", significant aspects of the proposal actually undermine that very independence. What represents a Russian ideal would probably be a disaster for Ukraine.

Reflecting his corporate background, Trump seems to consider the Ukrainian conflict as a basic border issue, like giving Russia a section of Ukraine's territory will appease the president. But, Russia's invasion is not only about controlling a damaged swath of industrial-devastated area in Ukraine's east. Instead, it's about the nation's democracy – and Putin's obvious intention to destroy it so it ceases to serves as an attractive standard for the Russian citizens of the democratic leadership that Putin's growing autocracy withholds them.

Land Surrenders

While keeping in place the already divided regions of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia, the plan would require Ukraine to abandon the whole this eastern territory. In addition to favoring Russia with area that its forces have been unsuccessful to seize in more than a decade of conflict, this giveaway would leave Ukrainian defensive positions critically undermined.

Donetsk is the site of the nation's much-vaunted "defensive line", the entrenched protective structures that constitute a key barrier to Russian advances. Trump would have the Ukrainian military surrender these defenses, giving Russian forces a unobstructed route to Kyiv should he later opt to renew the conflict.

Armed Forces Limitations

Then, in a action that would enable renewed conflict more feasible for Russia, Trump would require Ukraine to diminish the size of its armed forces from their existing large number troops to a cap of 600,000. Notably, the initiative imposes no such restrictions on Russian forces.

Seemingly as a gesture to Putin's campaign to depict the nation's legitimate administration as radicals, Trump's proposal states: "Every radical ideology and actions must be condemned and banned." Apparently to underscore this element, it demands that "Ukraine will hold political contests in this period" of a truce. At the same time, the proposal places no requirement that the Russian leader endanger his authoritarian rule by holding elections in Russia.

Defense Commitments

To be sure, the proposal makes Russia promise not to "invade neighboring countries" and to "establish in regulation its position of non-violence towards European nations and the Ukrainian people". But given that Putin has violated comparable agreements in the past – for example the 1994 agreement, in which the Russian government pledged to recognize the nation's borders in exchange for relinquishing its historical atomic arms, and the previous peace deals, in which Russia committed to a truce and a restoration of occupied land in the region to Ukrainian control – how should we have confidence in this commitment this time?

For this reason the Ukrainian government has been so determined on external protection assurances. While the plan warns of a "strong coordinated military response" if Russia resume its invasion, and includes that "The nation will receive dependable defense commitments", the details vary from fuzzy to concerning. The initiative would not only block Ukraine Nato membership but also preclude alliance nations from stationing troops on the nation's land, thus blocking the reassurance force, likely headed by European powers, on which the Ukrainian government had been counting to deter Russia from restoring his weakened troops, re-equipping, and attacking again.

World Reaction

A separate parallel deal apparently would offer the nation with a similar to NATO defense commitment, in which any subsequent "significant, intentional, and continuous aggression" by the Russian Federation on the country "would be considered as an assault jeopardizing the peace and security of the allied countries." That suggests a military response. Yet different from a capable Ukrainian military – the nation's primary defense against future invasion – the success of the supplementary deal would hinge on the commitment of Western powers, including the US administration, to react militarily to Putin's aggression, an action they have {not